New Method Developed for Forecasting Flu Outbreaks
- By BSTQ Staff
A computer model for predicting flu outbreaks weeks in advance has been developed by researchers at Columbia University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The model incorporates techniques used in weather prediction to forecast flu outbreaks up to seven weeks in advance, raising the possibility of flu forecasts that might one day help guide such decisions about when to increase vaccine production, close schools, better staff hospitals, etc. “Flu forecasting has the potential to significantly improve our ability to prepare for and manage the seasonal flu outbreaks that strike each year,” said Irene Eckstrand, a program director at the National Institutes of Health.
To develop the model’s formula, researchers used data from the Google Flu Trends project, which estimates outbreaks based on the number of flu-related search queries in a given region, as well as findings from a previous study that found wintertime U.S. flu epidemics tended to occur following very dry weather.
A practical use of the model is likely at least a year away, according to Dr. John Sinnott, director of the University of South Florida’s Health Division of Infectious Disease and International Medicine. The findings were reported on in the Nov. 28, 2012, edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
